Over the past several years the warning system has provided adequate time for the great majority of the people on barrier islands and along the immediate coast to move inland when hurricanes have threatened. However, it is becoming more difficult each year to evacuate people from these areas due to roadway systems that have not kept pace with the rapid population growth. This condition results in the requirement for longer and longer lead times for safe evacuation. Unfortunately, these extended forecasts suffer from increasing uncertainty. Furthermore, rates of improvements in forecast skills have been far out-paced by rates of population growth in areas vulnerable to hurricanes.
The combination of the growing populations on barrier islands and other vulnerable locations, and the uncertainties in the forecasts poses major dilemmas for forecasters and local and state emergency management officials alike, i.e., how do you prevent complacency caused by false alarms and yet provide adequate warning times?
Preparations for hurricanes are expensive. When a hurricane is forecast to move inland on a path nearly normal to the coast the area placed under warning is about 300 miles in length. The average cost of preparation, whether the hurricane strikes or not, is more than $50 million for the Gulf Coast. This estimate covers the cost of boarding up homes, closing down businesses and manufacturing plants, evacuating oil rigs, etc. It does not include economic losses due to disruption of commerce activities such as sales, tourists canceling reservations, etc. In some locations, the loss for the Labor Day weekend alone can be a substantial portion of the yearly income of coastal businesses. An example of such losses was experienced along the Florida panhandle during Hurricane Elena in 1945.
Finally the hurricane problem is compounded by the fact that 80% -90% of the people who now live in hurricane-prone areas have never experienced the core of a major hurricane (Saffir/Simpson scale category 3 or stronger; Hebert et al. 1984). Many of these people have been through weaker hurricanes or been brushed by the fringe of a major hurricane. The result is a false impression of the damage potential of these storms. This frequently breeds complacency and delays actions which could result in the loss of many lives. An example of the potential danger are those people living on barrier islands who might be reluctant to evacuate under "blue sky" conditions until they see the actual threat (waters rising and winds increasing) (Simpson and Ruhl 1981).
The result could be people trapped in those areas as waters cut off escape routes. This situation nearly happened for about 200 people on western Galveston Island during Hurricane Alicia of 1983. This type of response primarily results from three major factors. First, major hurricanes are infrequent events for any given location. Second, for more than the past two decades, major hurricanes striking the United States coast have been less frequent than for the three previous decades. Finally, it has been during this period of low hurricane activity that the great majority of the present coastal residents moved to the coast.
With the tremendous increase of populations in high-risk areas along our coastlines, the concern is that we may now not fare as well in the future when hurricane activity inevitably returns to the frequencies experienced during the 1940s-60s.
Question: According to this article, the "United States Hurricane Problem" is that people are reluctant to evacuate during a hurricane. What seem to be the reasons for this reluctance?
An answer that uses no evidence from the text:
There are many reasons people are reluctant to leave during a hurricane. One is that people do not want to leave their homes. They are afraid that someone will break into their house when they are gone. Another reason is that you cannot take your pets to the shelters. Most of them will not allow you to bring your pets, so you don't want to leave your dog alone. Another reason some people don't want to leave is that they really like the stormy weather. They want to go surfing on the big waves, or wade around in the floods. They think it is cool to stay behind. Last, people might not believe that the storm is really going to affect them. They think it will blow out to sea, and then they would have gone to all that trouble for nothing.
An answer that uses specific words and phrases from the text (method A), with extensions:
There are many reasons people are reluctant to leave during a hurricane. The warning system tells people pretty far in advance that a hurricane is coming, and because there are only a few roads to leave on, the evacuation is started early. Because the evacuation notice is given so far in advance, the storm may actually change direction, and then the people have left for nothing. The beach has then lost a lot of money due to closing down businesses, tourists canceling reservations, etc. Another reason is that most of the people who live in hurricane-prone areas have never experienced a major hurricane. They have not experienced the actual damage that a big hurricane can cause, and so they think that a hurricane is no big deal. They also get the warnings so far in advance that the sky is still blue and the weather is great, so they don't think there is any danger. By the time they see the wind and the water rising, it might be too hard to leave. Last, there have not been many bad hurricanes in the past two decades. During that time is when most of the coastal residents moved to the coast. They think they are not going to be in a major storm because so far, they haven't.
An answer that uses quoted evidence from the text (method B), with extensions:
There are many reasons people are reluctant to leave during a hurricane. The article states that because there are so many people at the beaches during hurricane season, and "roadway systems that have not kept pace with the rapid population growth," it is necessary to give "longer and longer lead times for safe evacuation." This means that warnings need to be given so far in advance so everyone can leave in time, that the storm may actually change its direction in that time, and then everyone left for nothing. Another reason that people might not want to leave is that "80% - 90% of the people who now live in hurricane-prone areas have never experienced the core of a major hurricane." They don't know what kind of damage a major hurricane can cause, so they think that the storms are not so bad. The article also states, "An example of the potential danger are those people living on barrier islands who might be reluctant to evacuate under 'blue sky' conditions until they see the actual threat (waters rising and winds increasing)." They don't want to leave when it looks like sunny, nice weather. By the time the weather is bad, they might not be able to leave, because water is over the roads.
An answer that uses a blend of specific words and phrases and quoted sentences (methods A and B), with extensions:
There are many reasons people are reluctant to leave during a hurricane. There has been a rapid population growth on barrier islands, and the roadway systems have not kept up with the growth. "This condition results in the requirement for longer and longer lead times for safe evacuation. Unfortunately, these extended forecasts suffer from increasing uncertainty." This means that in the long time it takes to evacuate everyone from the beaches, the storm may actually change its course, and not be a threat. Then, everyone has left for nothing. The beach has then lost a lot of money due to closing down businesses, tourists canceling reservations, etc. Another reason is that most of the people who live in hurricane-prone areas have never experienced a major hurricane. They have not experienced the actual damage that a big hurricane can cause, and so they think that a hurricane is no big deal. They also get the warnings so far in advance that the sky is still blue and the weather is great, so they don't think there is any danger. By the time they see the wind and the water rising, it might be too hard to leave. The article also states that "for more than the past two decades, major hurricanes striking the United States have been less frequent than for the three previous decades." This period of low hurricane activity has caused people to think that there is not a big threat, but that could change.